Market Report · Southern OntarioJuly 2026 Southern Ontario Real Estate Market Report: What's Really Happening Across the GTA And Surroundings📅 Published August 7, 2026📊 Based on July
🏡 Southern Ontario Market Report – September 2025
Dated: October 5 2025
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Team HomeAxe
"Sharp Moves - Smart Homes"
Executive Summary 📊
Key Market Findings - September 2025
- Market Balance: Generally favors buyers across most regions, with select competitive segments
- Price Trends: Mostly flat to declining, with minimal evidence of sustained rebound
- Sales Activity: Month-over-month improvement post-interest rate cut, but remains below long-term averages
- Inventory Levels: Historically high, providing buyers with significant choice and negotiation leverage
Is it a buyer's market in September 2025?
Are home prices rising or falling?
Prices in most regions are steady or softening modestly compared to both August 2025 and September 2024.
How does this compare to last year?
Activity and prices are slightly lower than September 2024, continuing trends from late summer.
Regional Market Analysis 🗺️
City of Toronto
Sales Volume: Improved from August
Average Price: Slight decrease YoY
Notable Trend: Downtown condos offer good value
Peel Region
Mississauga: Softer detached pricing
Brampton: Flat prices, townhouse traction
Inventory: 3-year high
Durham Region
Sales Activity: Moderate uptick
Prices: Soft in Oshawa/Clarington
Inventory: Significantly elevated
Halton Region
Oakville: Townhouse/condo demand up
Luxury Market: Slow, longer DOM
Halton Hills: Inventory doubled YoY
Hamilton-Burlington
Sales: Below historical avg
Average Price: Flat to down YoY
Supply: Highest since 2009
Waterloo Region
August Sales: 536 homes
YoY Change: Down 1%
Active Listings: Abundant, pressuring prices
| York Region City | Sales Volume | Avg. Price vs Aug | YoY Price Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markham | Up | Down 1% | Stable |
| Vaughan | Up slightly | Down 2% | Declining |
| Aurora | Flat | Down 1.5% | Soft |
| Newmarket | Up slightly | Flat | Stable |
| King City | Down | Down 2.5% | Declining |
Housing Type Performance 🏘️
Detached
Price: -1% to -3%
Inventory: High
Trend: Flat/Down
Inventory: High
Trend: Flat/Down
Semi-Detached
Price: -1.5%
Inventory: High
Trend: Flat
Inventory: High
Trend: Flat
Townhouses
Price: Stable
Inventory: Moderate
Trend: Flat/Up
Inventory: Moderate
Trend: Flat/Up
Condos
Price: -0.5%
Inventory: High
Trend: Stable/Up
Inventory: High
Trend: Stable/Up
Key Insights by Property Type
- Detached: High supply puts downward pressure on prices, especially in the $1M+ category
- Semis: Modest price declines, but well-located units remain competitive
- Townhomes: Most affordable for first-time buyers; strongest price stability
- Condos: Well-priced downtown and suburban units moving; investors cautious due to rent caps
Market Influencing Factors 📈
Interest Rates
Bank of Canada rate cut in summer 2025 provided short-lived boost to sales but didn't reverse broad pricing trends. Buyers rushed to lock in rates after the cut.
Immigration
Strong immigration continues supporting long-term demand, though many newcomers are renting rather than buying in 2025.
Supply & Inventory
Rising inventory, new completions, and slower absorption keep conditions balanced to buyer-favored across most markets.
Policy Changes
No major new housing policies implemented in Q3 2025, maintaining status quo market conditions.
Market Sentiment
Buyer confidence improved modestly post-rate cut, but most remain cautious. Sellers pricing more realistically.
Forward Outlook & Recommendations 🎯
For Buyers 🏡
September 2025 offers excellent choice, stable or negotiable prices, and limited competition. Ideal time for long-term value purchases, though expect slow short-term appreciation. Those with rate hold approvals should act strategically.
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